Sabtu, 14 April 2012

SSIA
Sebenarnya target SSIA adalah Rp. 1290 sesuai info FA di bawah ini:

Surya Semesta Internusa (SSIA IJ; BUY; TP IDR 1,290):
Company update – On Solid Ground
Wednesday, February 29, 2012 1:24 PM
  • SSIA’s unaudited net profit for FY11 soared 122% y-o-y to IDR257bn, beating our and consensus estimates
  • The strongest growth post by its property business with FY11 property revenue climbed 286% y-o-y to IDR 908bn, raising the contribution of this highest margin business to 32% from 14% in FY10. As a result, SSIA’s net margin widened by 200bps to 9% in FY11.
  • Outlook for industrial estates remains bright with SSIA President Director Mr Johannes Suriadjaja said the company expects to record additional industrial land sales of around 40-80ha to Astra Honda Motor (AHM).
  • License for 2,000ha land in Bekasi has been obtained, whilst another 1,000ha in Karawang is still in discussion with 80% probability of it being given the licence.
  • Maintain BUY, TP IDR 1,290.

Surya Semesta Internusa (SSIA IJ; BUY; TP IDR 1,290):
Corporate Newsflash - Riding on Thirst For Industrial Land
Wednesday, February 15, 2012 11:49 AM
  • Toyota Motor Corp (Toyota) recently announced plans to invest JPY15bn to raise production capacity at its second plant in Karawang West Java
  • Toyota’s move is positive for automotive component investors, adding that this year alone, 21 Japanese component makers have plans to increase their investments in Indonesia
  • Assuming that each autoparts company needs 5ha of land to construct a new plant, the demand for industrial plots will rise by 105ha, thus enhancing the outlook for industrial estates.
  • Based on a research by Colliers, total industrial sales for 2011 reached 1,238.73ha (+128% y-o-y)
  • Industrial estate in Bekasi and Karawang is prefereable commanded more than 60% of the total number of transactions in 2011.
  • We expect developers to continue adding new supply to the current cumulative supply of industrial land in the Greater Jakarta Area, which stood at more than 9,000ha as at 2011
  • Among the three listed industrial estate companies, we like SSIA
  • In all, we maintain our BUY call on SSIA, with a PE-derived Target Price of IDR1,290. Our TP implies a PEG of 0.06x (or a 92% discount to the broader market’s 0.8x) as well as an upside potential of 46.6%.
Sampai dengan hari ini, Sabtu 14 April 2012, sudah terjadi beberapa kali transaksi speculative-buy di bawah harga Rp. 970 sebagai garis resistansinya dan sell on strength saat terjadi break-out dan mencapai garis resistansi barunya di Rp. 1060. Buy-back pun dilakukan agar konsistensi ekuitas tetap terjaga.

Berikut beberapa tahap dalam akumulasi dan distribusi saham ini:

Due Date
B/S
Shares
Quantity
Price
QxP
Agent
12-Mar-12
B
SSIA
(5,000)
(890)
(4,450,000)
PT
21-Mar-12
B
SSIA
(5,000)
(890)
(4,450,000)
PT
28-Mar-12
B
SSIA
(5,000)
(900)
(4,500,000)
PT
28-Mar-12
B
SSIA
(5,000)
(920)
(4,600,000)
PT
4-Apr-12
B
SSIA
(5,000)
(1,030)
(5,150,000)
PT



(25,000)
(926)
(23,150,000)


Due Date
B/S
Shares
Quantity
Price
QxP
Agent
03-Apr-12
S
SSIA
5,000
990
+4,950,000
PT
03-Apr-12
S
SSIA
5,000
1,000
+5,000,000
PT
03-Apr-12
S
SSIA
5,000
1,020
+5,100,000
PT
09-Apr-12
S
SSIA
5,000
1,050
+5,250,000
PT
11-Apr-12
S
SSIA
5,000
1,100
+5,500,000
PT



25,000
1,032
+25,800,000


Margin dari trading di atas adalah sebesar 11%, namun terjadi kelebihan jual 10 lot yang perlu diantisipasi untuk akumulasi saham ini kembali agar minimal sama dengan jumlah lot di posting sebelumnya. Jumlah ekuitas yang masih tersisa adalah sebagai-berikut:

Due Date
B/S
Shares
Quantity
Price
Lots
Agent
13-Apr-12
12-Mar-12
B
SSIA
(10,000)
(880)
(20)
PT
1,070
16-Apr-12
B
SSIA
(2,500)
(1,080)
(5)
DW
1,070
16-Apr-12
B
SSIA
(2,500)
(1,070)
(5)
DW
1,070

Akumulasi akan tetap konsisten dilakukan selama FA-nya sehat dan tumbuh positif, namun tetap mengantisipasi perubahan situasi di market.

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